Feng lei. Assessment of natural gas security in China: State and quantitative analysis. Dynamic Systems and Applications 29 (2020) No. 10, 2923 – 2949

https://doi.org/10.46719/dsa202029102

ABSTRACT.
In recent years, the demand for natural gas has increased year on year following the use from industrial and residential helped by a series of favorable policies about natural gas. Natural gas has been regarded as one of the main energy sources in China in 2017. That means which will play more and more important role in China’s energy mix. So, the assessment of national natural gas security has become more and more necessary and urgent. On the basis of literature review, this paper selects 11 evaluation indicators under a simple framework of natural gas system consisting of policy, supply-side, demand-side and gas infrastructure. Entropy-weight method and principal component analysis, two methods of quantitative analysis (“two Methods”), were chosen for the study. By comparing the results of these two methods, it was proved that the natural gas security is decreasing year by year and the result calculated by principal component analysis is more obvious than that calculated by entropy-weight method. Policy implications are proposed to improve the China’s natural gas security from four aspects: import, exploration and development of natural gas, natural gas utilization efficiency and natural gas infrastructure.

Keywords: natural gas security, Entropy-weight method, principal component analysis, indicators.