Yusra Bibi Ruhomally, Muhammad Zaid Dauhoo, and Laurent Dumas. An Analysis of the Recreational Use of Marijuana Amongst the 21+ Population of the State of Washington in the Context of I-502 and its Aftermath. Neural, Parallel, and Scientific Computations 28 (2020) No.4, 273-304

https://doi.org/10.46719/npsc20202844

ABSTRACT.
This paper analyses the impact of I–502 implementation in the state of Washington, using the NERA model. The NERA system comprises of 4 classes of users namely, N: nonusers, E: experimental users, R: recreational users and A: addicts. The persistence of illicit drug use is proved when the conditions $R_{0}>1$ and $\mu>1$ are ensured. Data available in \cite{refereport}, from 2011 to 2015, is opted for estimating the values of the coefficients for the model. Genetic algorithm is performed and the best coefficients with minimum sum of squared error are obtained. The numerical results indicate a rise in the peer pressure that recreational users and experimental users exert on nonusers to try drugs in the post legalisation period. The concept of targeted campaigns of prevention is explained and a numerical study of the effectiveness of such campaigns of prevention, enacted before I–502, is conducted. The results show a decline in the proportion of experimental, recreational and addict users by 1\%, 8\% and 3\% respectively. The latter numerical simulation reveals that targeted campaigns of prevention prior to legalization can help to attenuate abusive use of that drug.

AMS (MOS) Subject Classification. 39A10.